Idea 1 — Spot-vs-perp basis carry
Falsified as stated. Not profitable at every holding period: the round trip costs ten days of funding, so it turns positive only past two weeks. It is a funding trade, not a basis trade.
Every hypothesis tested against recorded venue data, including the ones that did not survive. Each page is the executed notebook: the charts are live, the numbers are reproducible from the committed fixtures.
Idea 2 — Funding capture on a directional book
Rejected. Funding is 37x smaller than price dispersion at 30 days, so the signal is noise against the position risk taken to collect it.
Idea 3 — Cross-venue funding spread
Not tradeable as stated. Mean +3.95% annualized against a median of exactly zero: a third of windows sit at both venues' floor and the top 10% carry 94% of the total. Breakeven is past two weeks.